DAFV Postseason Prospect Report - #7-12

Brandon Wood: The highest-rated prospect
from teams #7-12 comes from the E-Balls.

This will be the first of four DAFV articles as well as the first of two prospect reports. I will be exploring the values of pitchers and hitters in my other two articles. First off the press is the “Postseason” Prospect Report which will assess each teams prospects as they are now in the postseason. The “Preseason” Prospect Report will come in the weeks following the draft when rosters are set for the upcoming season and the top prospects from the 2006 MLB draft are officially on a fantasy team.

First, only players who are showing up on prospects lists were included. So, guys like Anthony Reyes and Andy Marte who used up their eligibility last year aren’t included. The valuation was complied as follows:

First, I gathered prospect rankings from three sources to get an average ranking for each prospect. If a prospect was not ranked I gave him one over the total list. So for example, if it was a 50 player list any unlisted player would be 51. For the Preseason analysis I plan to use five sources as opposed to three.

I then took the average actual scoring by position for last season and developed a ‘multiplier’ for each position. This way, the positions with less depth like catcher and 2B get added value whereas the deeper ones like 1B and OF get less value. Each team then received a score based on the average score of all of their prospects.

The next step I took was to rank the top 20 players currently being held. This is only based on prospects that are on teams and not all prospects available. I felt this was the better method because players from the 2006 MLB draft are not yet eligible so they would skew the data. So, even though Nick Adenhart scored a 28.00 he still made the top 20. Each team then received points for having players in each range of the top 20. Players between 16-20 received 1 pt, 11-15 1.5 pts, 6-10 2pts and 1-5 3pts. This point total gave each team a prospect quality ranking.

The prospect quality ranking was then weighted in with the average prospect ranking to come up with my list of which team has the best prospects. I used 67% of the average score ranking and 33% of the quality ranking.

That being said, I’ll walk you all through one team so you can apply what I’ve written to actual results. I’ve chosen the E-Balls since they never seem to visit the site and therefore are least likely to bitch if they disagree with my assessment. The E-Balls three prospects are D.Barton, B.Wood and J.Botts. On the three rankings I used, Barton was 67, 38 & 40 for an average of 48.33. Wood was 5, 4 & 5 for an average of 4.67. And, Botts was unranked all lists so he received a 76, 80 & 51 for an average of 69.00. I then applied the position factor to each. Barton and Botts both play 1B which is a position that requires higher points, so their totals were adjusted to 52.69 & 75.22 respectively. Woods is a SS which rated out very close to even on position factor so his adjusted total was 4.68. When average together, the three gave the E-Balls a team average of 44.20.

Now, before I go into some team by team analysis, here are the rankings. First the top 20 players then the team rankings.

Top 20 Prospects
Rank	Player	Pos	Team	AdjRank
1	A Gordon	3B	Jackrabbits	1.43
2	D Young	OF	T-Baggers	1.71
3	P Hughes	P	DLB	3.67
4	H Bailey	P	Isotopes	3.67
5	B Wood	SS	Elephant Balls	4.68
6	C Maybin	OF	Hells Kitchen Herzogs	7.16
7	J Upton	OF	Bashful Satanists	7.85
8	B Butler	OF	AC Gun Show	9.55
9	T Tulowitz	SS	Hells Kitchen Herzogs	10.69
10	C B Young	OF	Mattrostars	11.26
11	J Bruce	OF	DLB	12.28
12	A Miller	P	T-Baggers	14.00
13	Y Gallardo	P	Mattrostars	18.67
14	M Garza	P	Jackrabbits	19.00
15	S Elbert	P	Mattrostars	19.00
16	C Gonzalez	OF	Blunter Stophers	19.79
17	M Pelfrey	P	Hells Kitchen Herzogs	20.00
18	N Adenhart	P	Bashful Satanists	28.00
19	J Danks	P	Slum Lords	37.67
20	H Pence	OF	Lynchmob	37.87

Team Prospect Rankings
No.	Team	Average	Rank	Quality	Rank	Net
1	Jackrabbits	10.21	1	4.5	3	1.67
2	Mattrostars	23.37	2	5	1	1.67
3	Herzogs	25.95	3	5	1	2.33
4	T-Baggers	26.43	4	4.5	3	3.67
5	DLB	27.61	5	4.5	3	4.33
6	Isotopes	34.41	6	3	6	6.00
7	Bashful Satanists	42.46	7	3	6	6.67
8	Elephant Balls	44.20	8	3	6	7.33
9	AC Gun Show	47.01	9	2	9	9.00
10	Blunter Stophers	51.43	10	1	10	10.00
11	Lynchmob	53.43	11	1	10	10.67
12	Slum Lords	58.56	12	1	10	11.33

Let’s start with the bottom and work up. This week I’ll do No. 12 to No. 7 and then next week I’ll do the top 6.

12.) Slum Lords – King Carlo loves videography, so maybe that’s why he’s holding 2/3 of the DVD (Diamond-Volquez-Danks) trio. The question is how Daniel Haigwood is on a roster let alone replacing Edinson Volquez. Haigwood is a soft tossing lefty that projects as a #4 or #5 starter at best and might be the worst prospect on any team. He was one of two Slum Lord’s who failed to make a single top prospect list. The other, Thomas Diamond, has ability but has fallen off the radar after serious control problems last season (5.4 walks/game). The lone bright spot of these prospects (and a dim bright spot at that) is John Danks the centerpiece of the Brandon McCarthy trade for the White Sox. Danks came in at #19 in the CWFFL top 20 list and is often compared to Mark Buerhle in what his ceiling might be.

11.) Lynchmob – A bit surprising considering the success of the parent club in recent years. Some of this might speak to the Lynchmob strategy of going after young MLB talent as opposed to prospects in trades for the likes of Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay & Richie Weeks. However, neglect of his farm system may come back to bite Jeff eventually. The Lynchmob’s top prospect is Hunter Pence an OF who doesn’t have the prettiest swing but has found success so far. He projects as a #2 or #3 fantasy OF if he can prove to hit MLB pitching. The Lynchmob’s only other prospect, Jordan Tata, didn’t make a single top prospect list. Probably because he projects as a middle reliever in the long run.

10.) Blunted Stophers – The only surprise here is that the Stophers actually didn’t come in last in something (They had the worst pitching and worst batting last season). However, it can be seen on the data above that there is a drop off from 9 to 10-12. That being said, the only thing separating the Stophers from the 11 & 12 teams is the potential of their top prospect Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez put up some nice numbers in High A last year (.289-23-99) as a 20 year old and he will face his biggest test thus far in AA this year. Currently ranked around #20, if he can produce similar numbers as a 21 year old in AA expect to see him in the 6-10 range of prospects come next offseason. After Gonzalez the Stophers don’t have much. Joel Guzman was once compared to Juan Gonzalez but seems to have completely fallen apart and may never meet his potential. And, while many credit Brian Bannister for being tough mentally his stuff is average and being on the lowly Royals certainly doesn’t help either.

9.) AC's Gun Show – This is one of a couple teams whose ranking was hurt by young players that lost their minor league eligibility (Marte, Billingsley, Morales, Sowers & Petit all were top 50 prospects last year). The best prospect in the system is Billy Butler who can flat out rake. While he may eventually be delegated to DH duties because of his poor defensive skills no one questions Butler’s ability to hit. The #8 overall prospect on our list, Butler put up some nice numbers in AA as a 20 year old (.331-15-96). His ranking is likely hurt due to his poor fielding, but along with Alex Gordon he should make one heck of a 1-2 combo in KC for years to come. After Butler, this systems thins out quickly. Eric Hurley has great stuff but is still very young and will be pitching in Texas which is not an easy task. Dustin Nippert projects as a #3 or #4 starter in his prime and Dustin Pedroia looks to be a David Eckstein clone. Decent average but not much in the way of power.

8.) Elephant Balls – Likes its owner, the prospects of this team are a total enigma and tough to figure out. Case in point is Daric Barton who fell from a top 10 prospect a year ago to the 40-50 range this year. The question is, can this typical Oakland on base machine of a prospect hit for enough power to justify his move from C to 1B. The E-Balls top prospect, Brandon Wood, also has a ton of potential but also a few question marks. Wood has mashed the past two years going for 71 extra base hits last year and 101 (!!) in 2005 on his way to winning minor league player of the year. At SS, our #5 prospect Wood also plays a premium position fantasy wise. However, there are questions about him as a pro due to his high strikeout rate (1 per 3 ABs). He has overcome it so far, but will he be overmatched by MLB pitching? The final E-Balls prospect is Jason Botts. He’s a solid but unspectacular hitter and will get every chance to earn a place in the Rangers line-up this year. While not an all-star he could prove to be a productive fantasy back-up or fill in starter.

7.) Bashful Satanists – To this writer this is perhaps the most surprising ranking on the list. The Satanists did a nice job last year of accumulating young talent in order to build towards the future, ala the Jackrabbits in 2005. So, to be ranked #7 and clearly behind those in the top 5 doesn’t seem to do them justice. This is partly due to two surefire top 20 prospects (Kendrick & Quentin) losing their eligibility and partly due to a lack of love for the Satanist prospects by the publications I used for this analysis. Top prospect Justin Upton came in at #7 on the league prospect rankings. The #1 overall pick in 2006, Upton is young and raw but was compared to A-Rod ability wise at draft time. So, while unproven the stud potential is certainly there. After that the Satanists have a nice mix of solid prospects. If you have heard of Nick Adenhart by now you will have be the end of the year. After a 15-4 campaign with a .229 BA against in high A last year he’ll make the jump to AA this year. Two full years removed from Tommy John surgery, many experts are predicting Adenhart will make some major noise this year in the prospect world. Rounding out the Satanist prospects are Chris Iannetta, Gio Gonzalez and Tyler Clippard. Iannetta who hits for decent average and decent power has the potential to be a Jason Varitek-type fantasy catcher. And eerily was recently named the Satanists starting catcher for 2007, over….. Jason Varitek. Gio Gonzalez is a short but hard throwing lefty with one heck of a temper. If he can harness his skills and keep himself in line he could prove to be a #2 or #3 type starter or a dominant closer. The final Satanist prospect is Tyler Clippard. Clippard lives and dies by his exceptional control. He doesn’t have a plus pitch in his repertoire, but he knows how to pitch and is project to be a future #3 or #4 starter. On a team like the Yankees, that’s pretty good.

Alright fellas, hope you enjoyed the first installment. The second installment will be out next week.

-Daddy