DAFV Postseason Prospect Report - #1-6

The Rabbits' Alex Gordon was ranked No. 1 prospect in DAFV.

Alright fellas, with No. 12 to No. 7 in the books its time for the top 6. Again, I’ll go in reverse order.

6.) Isotopes – The Isotopes sneak into the 6 slot in large part due to David DeWitt “aka Homer” Bailey. A consensus top 2 pitching prospect coming into this year with Philip Hughes, Bailey is a pitcher with major upside. You can ask 100 “experts” and you’ll probably hear about 50 that prefer Bailey and about 50 that prefer Hughes. We’ll discuss Hughes in a bit, so I’ll focus in on Bailey here. With a nice pitcher’s frame and electric stuff that features a fastball in the upper 90’s with lots of movement and a power curve, Bailey is the kind of pitcher that can absolutely dominate a game. However, like most pitchers with power stuff there are questions about his control. After a rough 2005 that saw him post a 4.43 ERA and 5.38 BB/9 Innings Bailey took a major step forward in 2006. His ERA dropped to 2.46 and his BB/9 dropped to 3.25. If he can continue to improve, watch out. It seems at worst he’ll be comparable to AJ Burnett and at best, well you can do the math.

After Bailey, the ‘Topes have two prospects that get some extremely varied views. Jeff Clement was a top 5 pick in 2005 and seemed to be on the fast track to a Mariners uniform. However, major struggles last season (.257, 4, 32) now have some wondering if his bat is legit. Troy Patton is a similar case. Despite solid numbers thus far in the minors many consider him a fringe major leaguer while others view him as a future #2. Only time will tell who’s right.

5.) DLB – Daddy’s Little Boys are the first of 5 teams with what I would rate as good minor league systems. Led by Philip Hughes, the DLB have three high ceiling prospects, two of which (Hughes and Jay Bruce) are in the top 25. As stated already, Hughes is widely renowned as one of the top 2 pitching prospects in all of baseball along with Homer Bailey. While Bailey has the better pure stuff, Hughes is the more polished pitcher. With a plus fastball, plus curveball, above average change and the ability to consistently throw all three pitches for strikes Hughes seems to be as close to a sure thing prospect as there is. He may never win a CY Young but he’ll likely be a top pitcher for a number of years, ala Mike Mussina. The Yankees have treated him with kid gloves thus far so expect at least a half season in AAA for the 20 year old before he hits the bigs.

Jay Bruce is the next DLB prospect with tremendous upside. His was the tale of two seasons as he started out scorching hot in A ball but faded down the stretch due in part to nagging injuries. Bruce has often been compared to Larry Walker in the type of player he might become. The third of the DLB’s high ceiling prospects is Jeff Niemann. A former top 5 pick, Niemann can touch triple digits with his fastball but injuries have become a concern in his young career. No one doubts his stuff but many question if he’ll be able to stay healthy. If he is healthy expect to see him in a ‘Rays uniform by the end of 2007.

The final DLB prospect is Adam Lind. After a couple solid seasons, Lind exploded onto the scene last year (.330, 24, 89) and did well in a September call-up. The question is was last year and aberration or a real step forward? Lind’s problem right now is finding a place in the Blue Jay’s line-up so he’ll likely be back in AAA or be forced to platoon in ‘07.

4.) T-Baggers – You gotta give Nip Weller some credit. He took a team that was worse than both expansion teams last year and has brought them close to respectability. And, if some of these prospects pan out he’ll be competing for a playoff spot in no time. Heading the ‘Baggers group of prospects is Delmon Young. With the former #1 overall pick in the draft the potential is certainly there. Young can hit for power, hit for average and steal some bases. The only problem is his head. Whispers of a bad attitude were confirmed last year after a bat throwing incident and an article in the local paper in which he along with some AAA teammates questioned the ability of the players on the parent club. Irregardless, look for Young to compete for the rookie of the year award in ’07.

Next on the T-Baggers list is Adam Miller, a flamethrower from the Indians. Miller was on many of the 2005 top 20 prospect lists after compiling 152 K’s and a WHIP of 1.03 during the 2004 season. However, an arm injury followed by surgery in 2005 dropped him considerably down the lists last offseason. Miller was able to fight back though and go 15-6 with a 2.75ERA in AA last year to jump back into the top 20. Look for him to start the year in the minors but be in the bigs as a starter or reliever by mid-summer.

The T-Baggers final two prospects are guys who don’t have a ton of upside but should be solid major leaguers. The first is the 6’8” giant Jason Hirsch. While Hirsch doesn’t have stuff that wows scouts and has put up high walk rates, he has found a way to win consistently and should compete for a starting spot in the Rockies rotation after a fine 2006 (13-2, 2.10ERA). The second is Josh Fields. He hits for decent average and decent power but is not great in either category (think Melvin Mora). Fields has proven all he can in the minors thus far, but is blocked by Joe Crede. So, it’s likely he’ll be major league ready trade bait at the trade deadline for the White Sox.

3.) Hells Kitchen Herzogs – Coming in at #3, the ‘Zogs lead the way with 5 minor league eligible players on their roster, 3 of which are in the top 20. Since his entrance into the league, Cooper has methodically built up this once sorry franchise. Rather than go for quick fixes, he has only made sound choices both in trades and in the signing of prospects. Case in point is the ‘Zogs top prospect, Cameron Maybin. A first round pick in 2005, Maybin quickly made noise last year in A ball with his speed and hitting ability(.304, 9, 69 w/ 27 steals). Rather than let him sit out in free agency, Cooper jumped on him and that choice looks wise now as Maybin sits in the top 10 of most prospect rankings and comes in at #6 on our list. At 6’3”, Maybin has the frame and potential to become an all-star at the MLB level.

At #9 on our list, Troy Tulowitzki plays a premium position (SS) at a premium ballpark (Colorado). An early favorite for rookie of the year honors, Tulowitzki has shown good gap power in the minor leagues so far which translates well to the spacious Coors Field. Tulo projects to be a Micheal Young lite, a little less power and average but still a nice player.

The third of the ‘Zogs top 20 prospects is Mike Pelfrey, the pitching gem of the Mets farm system. Pelfrey sports a 95 mph heater with lots of movement but still lacks command of any of his secondary pitches. He’ll compete for a spot in the Mets rotation this spring and should win one based on the lack of veteran talent. While his fastball will be enough to make him a solid MLB starter, his ability to develop his secondary pitches will be what determines whether or not he becomes a top of the rotation guy.

Next on the ‘Zogs list if Felix Pie. Coming into last season, Pie was being hailed as the second coming of Sammy Sosa in Chicago. However, after some struggles in AAA those comparisons have dwindled. While the Sosa’s comparisons were a little exaggerated and unfair, Pie should still become a solid major league regular.

The final prospect on the ‘Zogs team is the centerpiece of the Sheffield to the Tigers deal, Humberto Sanchez. After a modest 2005 campaign that saw his ERA soar over 5.00, Sanchez was finally able to put it together last season going for a 2.63 ERA and .220 batting avg against in AA. The question is, can he repeat the success he found last year and also can he find a spot in the Yankees rotation or will he be dealt away down the road.

2.) MattroStars – Fresh off a 2006 championship season in which they were finally able to shake the “Braves of fantasy baseball” label it appears as though the present and future both look bright for the MattroStars. For the ‘Stars prospects its all about depth. Despite coming in at #2 in our rankings, the highest ranked ‘Stars prospect is Chris Young who comes in at #10. However, they also have the #13 and #15 ranked players which shows the quality of their prospects. Leading off is the aforementioned Chris Young. This slick fielding CF has often been compared to Mike Cameron for how he projects as a major leaguer. Young can field, hit for power and run the bases well. The only thing he lacks in his hitting for average. Nonetheless, he has already been handed the starting job in Arizona, look for him to be a staple in the middle of a powerful D-Backs offense for years to come.

The next ‘Stars prospect on our list is Yovani Gallardo who is widely considered the #3 pitching prospect in the minors after Hughes & Bailey. With a four pitch repertoire he can control for strikes, Gallardo has torn through the minor leagues the past two seasons (11-5, 1.86 ERA last season). While his pure stuff might not be on the level of some other pitchers, his ability to throw his secondary pitches for strikes sets him above them. Gallardo is likely two years away from a starting job in Brew Town but could be a late summer bullpen call-up if the Brewers can stay in the playoff race.

Next on the Mattrostars list is Scott Elbert. With Chad Billingsley graduating to the majors, Elbert now leads the list of Dodger pitching prospects. This lefty flamethrower has dominated minor league batters, but like many power pitchers has some command issues. So, his projectability is the same as all of them. If he can learn to harness his stuff he’s got all-star potential, if not he’s a middle of the rotation starter or top reliever.

The final ‘Stars prospect is Ian Stewart. Stewart was ranked around #10 in last years prospect rankings but fell considerably after 2006 season that saw him struggle mightily in AA. Stewart was often overmatched by the advanced pitching but at only 21 he still has room to bounce back. Another problem with Stewart is the fact that he’s blocked in Colorado. With Garrett Atkins at 3B and Todd Helton at 1B there’ll be no open spot for Stewart for the foreseeable future.

1.) Jackrabbits – Yes gentlemen, the same Jackrabbits that have been the subject of league ridicule in the past come in at #1 in our prospect rankings. Despite some poor moves early on, GM Brandon Brown really turned the corner in 2005 stripping his team down and loading it with young talent to build for the future. And, it looks as though 2007 may be the year this team officially breaks out. Already loaded with top young MLB talent such as Liriano, Hamels & Cain the Jackrabbits have two very high quality minor leaguers as well. First up is our #1 overall prospect and a player who has been referred to as a better version of David Wright, Alex Gordon. Like Wright, Gordon does everything well. He can field, hit for power and hit for average. The only difference is he’s left handed. After destroying AA pitching last year (.325, 29, 101), Gordon will be handed the Royals starting 3B job this summer. While he might struggle at first due to lack of line-up protection, look for Gordon to develop into a regular top 5 fantasy 3B for years to come.

The only other Jackrabbits prospect is Matt Garza who comes in at #14 on our list. After a quiet 2005 season Garza tore through the minors last year going all the way from A ball to the major leagues. While he struggles in the majors (reasonable considering the large jump in class), his combined minor league stats were impressive (14-4, 1.99 ERA). Garza will compete for a spot at the end of the Twins rotation this spring and has the look of yet another top notch Twins pitching prospect. Congrats to the Jackrabbits for finishing tops on our list.

Finally, I want to close with the fact that these rankings are merely opinion and that a lot can change. A couple quick facts to prove my point are 1.) No Baseball America #1 ranked pitching prospect has ever won a CY Young. 2.) Pedro was ranked #62 his final year in the minors and 3.) Look at the BA top 10 for 2002:

1. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins
2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs
3. Hank Blalock, 3b, Rangers
4. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
5. Carlos Pena, 1b, Athletics
6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs
7. Joe Mauer, c, Twins
8. Wilson Betemit, ss, Braves
9. Drew Henson, 3b, Yankees
10. Mark Teixeira, 3b, Rangers

As you can see, it’s far from an exact science. Some players become stars (Mauer, Teixeira), some merely become solid regulars (Beckett, Blalock, Betemit), some fail miserably (Burroughs, Pena, Cruz, Henson) and some are doomed by injuries (Prior).

Hope you all enjoyed the DAFV post season prospect report. Next up, the DAFV hitters analysis.

-Daddy