Thursday, April 4, 2013

Heck's Preview - Outfield 2


Heck’s completely scientific season preview/analysis by position
 

Andrew McCutchen takes a page out of the Wickersham workout book...

OUTFIELDERS - #2

#1 – DADDY’S LITTLE BOYS – Andrew McCutchen, PIT – 100 POINTS
The face of the Pirate franchise, he can’t even get top billing in the DLB outfield.  But he should continue to put up MVP like numbers as the Pirates try to…slowly…climb back to relevancy…
CBS
601
RotoChamp
599
Steamer
574
Bill James
582
Oliver
558
ZIPS
581
AVERAGE
582.5

#2 – THE H TREE – Giancarlo Stanton, MIA – 98.54 POINTS
Should be a fun year down in South Beach for Giancarlo.  Whole team has been traded away.  No reason for pitchers to throw him strikes.  But he will still hit dingers.  Oh yes.  He will still hit dingers…
CBS
606
RotoChamp
566
Steamer
576
Bill James
578
Oliver
562
ZIPS
556
AVERAGE
574

#3 – BASHFUL SATANISTS – Bryce Harper, WAS – 91.82 POINTS
Here’s another guy who kind of breaks the computers.  So few players in baseball history have done anything substantial before their 20th birthday, it’s difficult to find comps for this guy.  The top 4 “most similar” per baseball-reference are all in the Hall of Fame, including Mel Ott, Al Kaline and Ty Cobb.  Harper had a far better Age 19 year than Mike Trout, and we all saw what happened with that guy.  Sky’s the limit for Harper, it would seem…
CBS
574
RotoChamp
562
Steamer
525
Bill James
551
Oliver
464
ZIPS
533
AVERAGE
534.8

#4 – ISOTOPES – Matt Holliday, STL – 90.59 POINTS
Holliday saw a slight regression in his numbers last year, not all that surprising as he starts to enter the aging period of his career.  Now 33, Holliday is still a dangerous hitter but not likely to carry a team on his back the way he once could…
CBS
576
RotoChamp
536
Steamer
510
Bill James
575
Oliver
478
ZIPS
491
AVERAGE
527.7

#5 – MATTROSTARS – Josh Hamilton, LAA – 89.73 POINTS
Another one-time prodigy, Hamilton famously derailed his career before miraculously returning in a blaze of glory.  He IS a guy who can carry a team on his back for weeks at a time, but showed last year that he is just as capable of disappearing for a while too.  Will last year’s spike in K rate lead to trouble ahead for the newest Angel?
CBS
587
RotoChamp
564
Steamer
427
Bill James
587
Oliver
500
ZIPS
471
AVERAGE
522.7

#6 – JACKRABBITS – B.J. Upton, ATL – 89.13 POINTS
One of the first big-ticket free agent signings in the offseason, BJ comes to the NL as a bit of an enigma, sort of like his brother.  After a breakout season in 2007 at the age of 22, it looked like Upton’s game would grow into a perennial All-Star candidate.  Instead, he’s never replicated those numbers, and last year stopped taking walks while hitting a few more home runs.  Fantasy owners hope the switch to the NL combined with being united with his younger brother will get him back on track…
CBS
508
RotoChamp
515
Steamer
498
Bill James
543
Oliver
500
ZIPS
551
AVERAGE
519.2

#7 – LIMERICK LYNCHMOB – Michael Bourn, CLE – 86.38 POINTS
Third straight big ticket free agent on the list, Bourn got “Boras-ed” into taking a below market deal with Cleveland because of the draft pick compensation issue.  A majority of Bourn’s value is tied to his speed (and defense), traits that scared teams off as he gets older (and one can assume, not faster…)
CBS
529
RotoChamp
526
Steamer
491
Bill James
497
Oliver
474
ZIPS
502
AVERAGE
503.2

#8 – SNAPDRAGONS – Desmond Jennings, TAM – 83.49 POINTS
Des had a bit of a disappointing year in 2012, posting an OPS of .702 in 563 PA’s.  Still, his potential and speed are appealing, and he’s only 26.  The projections look for him to take a step up…
CBS
524
RotoChamp
485
Steamer
488
Bill James
498
Oliver
438
ZIPS
485
AVERAGE
486.3

#9 – NORRIS SLUM LORDS – Shane Victorino, BOS – 82.95 POINTS
After a career year in 2011, Shane had a pretty dreadful 2012 at the plate, though he did steal a career-high 39 bases to help retain some fantasy value.  The move to Boston seems to be suiting him so far, perhaps a little reinvigoration for the Flyin’ Hawaiian?
CBS
524
RotoChamp
489
Steamer
468
Bill James
484
Oliver
450
ZIPS
484
AVERAGE
483.2

#10 – HELLS KITCHEN HERZOGS – Josh Reddick, OAK – 82.93 POINTS
Reddick and his completely absurd facial hair had a nice season in his first campaign with a full-time gig.  32 bombs playing out of Oakland’s park (whatever it’s called these days) is nothing to sneeze at.  He makes a lot of outs though – Reddick will have to continue bringing the power to counter his anemic OBP…
CBS
524
RotoChamp
510
Steamer
453
Bill James
523
Oliver
455
ZIPS
433
AVERAGE
483

#11 – ELEPHANT BALLS – Nick Swisher, CLE – 80.52 POINTS
The Yankees decided to let Swisher walk after a typically solid, unspectacular season, presumably to save room in their OF for Vernon Wells.  Meanwhile, Swish landed in Cleveland with fellow FA Michael Bourn to wreak havoc on the AL Central…
CBS
493
RotoChamp
463
Steamer
478
Bill James
506
Oliver
449
ZIPS
425
AVERAGE
469

#12 – BROOKLYN BLUNTED B – Dexter Fowler, COL – 80 POINTS
When you search for “Fowler” in Fangraphs, two of the five results are “Boob Fowler” and “Dick Fowler”.  I hearby request that Dexter change his name to “Pussy”.
CBS
482
RotoChamp
476
Steamer
476
Bill James
468
Oliver
427
ZIPS
467
AVERAGE
466

#13 – T-BAGGERS – Andre Ethier, LAD – 75.77 POINTS
Dodger fans are already beating their drums to have Yasiel Puig (and his 95 professional plate appearances) called up to replace Andre.  Always a good sign…
CBS
467
RotoChamp
446
Steamer
378
Bill James
489
Oliver
433
ZIPS
435
AVERAGE
441.3

#14 – ROCKBUSTERS – Cameron Maybin, SDG – 71.73 POINTS
Sure seems like everyone on this list is either an aging 2012 free agent or a one-time prospect who has struggled to blossom.  Maybin has shown flashes over the past few years, but playing half of his games at Petco sure hasn’t helped…
CBS
437
RotoChamp
421
Steamer
393
Bill James
434
Oliver
404
ZIPS
418
AVERAGE
417.8

RANKINGS AFTER 7 POSITIONS:
INFIELD
OF1
OF2
OF3
TOTAL
Daddy's Little Boys
459.93
95.93
100.00
655.86
Isotopes
424.82
82.76
90.59
598.16
MattroStars
424.54
81.95
89.73
596.22
Elephant Balls
426.26
78.83
80.52
585.61
Jackrabbits
404.04
87.68
89.13
580.85
Bashful Satanists
405.32
82.05
91.82
579.19
Hells Kitchen Herzogs
417.41
78.03
82.92
578.36
Norris Slum Lords
418.93
72.90
82.95
574.78
Limerick Lynchmob
397.55
79.03
86.38
562.96
The H Tree
362.69
100.00
98.54
561.23
T-Baggers
399.47
69.76
75.77
544.99
Snapdragons
381.23
74.38
83.49
539.11
Brooklyn Blunted B
385.17
72.78
80.00
537.94
Rox
387.14
62.95
71.73
521.81

Tomorrow – OF3

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