Heck’s completely scientific season preview/analysis by position
OUTFIELDERS - #1
There will be three posts for outfielders, as they represent
three positions in our starting lineups.
And, my apologies in advance, but I won’t be doing an analysis of the “Utility”
spot. Not going through the entirety of
everyone’s rosters to find their next best player…oh, and spoiler alert…here
comes the H Tree…
#1 – THE H TREE –
Mike Trout, LAA – 100 POINTS
Acquired in last year’s late-season blockbuster trade with
the Satanists, Trout pretty much renders the computers useless in this
case. Baseball-reference’s top 10
similarity scores for Trout list 6 Hall-of-Famers (including Mickey Mantle, Ted
Williams and Jimmie Foxx), a soon-to-be Hall of Famer (Ken Griffey Jr.) and a
member of the Limerick Lynchmob (Jason Heyward). This kid may end up being pretty good…and he
makes 1.8% of A-Rod’s salary this year!
|
CBS
|
681
|
|
RotoChamp
|
676
|
|
Steamer
|
631
|
|
Bill James
|
721
|
|
Oliver
|
599
|
|
ZIPS
|
670
|
|
AVERAGE
|
663
|
#2 – DADDY’S LITTLE
BOYS – Ryan Braun, MIL – 95.93 POINTS
The Hebrew Hammer is coming off of back-to-back 7.0+ WAR
seasons, and continues to be a feared slugger in Milwaukee. He is the target of a PED related witch hunt,
however, which could be bad news to the Brewers and the DLB who can ill afford
to lose his bat for a minimum of 50 games…
|
CBS
|
672
|
|
RotoChamp
|
651
|
|
Steamer
|
615
|
|
Bill James
|
665
|
|
Oliver
|
574
|
|
ZIPS
|
639
|
|
AVERAGE
|
636
|
#3 – JACKRABBITS –
Matt Kemp, LAD – 87.68 POINTS
Kemp got off to a scorching hot start last year after a reinvigorating
his career in 2011 before injuries impacted the rest of his season. Still one of the top OFs in the game when
healthy, the pressure’s on him and the rest of the Dodgers in 2013…
|
CBS
|
634
|
|
RotoChamp
|
602
|
|
Steamer
|
551
|
|
Bill James
|
610
|
|
Oliver
|
528
|
|
ZIPS
|
563
|
|
AVERAGE
|
581.3
|
#4 – ISOTOPES –
Carlos Gonzalez, COL – 82.76 POINTS
CarGo has regressed slightly in back-to-back years since his
breakout 2010 campaign. Still, an .881
OPS with speed is nothing to sneeze at.
Now he needs to stay healthy – Gonzalez has never played more than 145
games in a season…
|
CBS
|
578
|
|
RotoChamp
|
551
|
|
Steamer
|
508
|
|
Bill James
|
574
|
|
Oliver
|
495
|
|
ZIPS
|
586
|
|
AVERAGE
|
548.7
|
#5 – BASHFUL
SATANISTS – Justin Upton, ATL – 82.05 POINTS
Can’t get the image of the Upton brothers playing with their
remote control cars in hotel rooms on the road out of my head, much like the
Hanson brothers in “Slap Shot”. Will
being united with his brother in the Braves’ outfield get Justin back on track
to greatness? Early returns are positive…
|
CBS
|
577
|
|
RotoChamp
|
519
|
|
Steamer
|
567
|
|
Bill James
|
579
|
|
Oliver
|
500
|
|
ZIPS
|
522
|
|
AVERAGE
|
544
|
#6 – MATTROSTARS – Jay
Bruce, CIN – 81.95 POINTS
Bruce increased his home run output for the 5th
consecutive season in 2012, reaching 34 bombs.
His SLG crept over the .500 mark for the first time as well. Happy birthday, Jay – you’re 26 today and
should be approaching the peak of your baseball career…
|
CBS
|
572
|
|
RotoChamp
|
559
|
|
Steamer
|
514
|
|
Bill James
|
571
|
|
Oliver
|
507
|
|
ZIPS
|
537
|
|
AVERAGE
|
543.3
|
#7 – LIMERICK LYNCHMOB
– Jason Heyward, ATL – 79.03 POINTS
After a so-so sophomore campaign marred by a wrist injury,
Heyward delivered on the hype last year, posting a 6.3 fWAR and crushing 27
home runs. Surrounded by bashers up and
down the Braves lineup, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to swing away this
year. Will there be anyone on base in
front of him, though?
|
CBS
|
549
|
|
RotoChamp
|
519
|
|
Steamer
|
558
|
|
Bill James
|
554
|
|
Oliver
|
477
|
|
ZIPS
|
487
|
|
AVERAGE
|
524
|
#8 – ELEPHANT BALLS –
Alex Gordon, KC – 78.83 POINTS
Remember when this kid was a bust at third base? I was shocked to see him ranked this high,
but he’s turned himself into the real deal.
Power output dropped a little in 2012, but the projections see him
holding strong at a .800+ OPS with 20ish homers. Not gonna hurt you…
|
CBS
|
588
|
|
RotoChamp
|
496
|
|
Steamer
|
523
|
|
Bill James
|
552
|
|
Oliver
|
489
|
|
ZIPS
|
488
|
|
AVERAGE
|
522.7
|
#9 – HELLS KITCHEN
HERZOGS – Adam Jones, BAL – 78.03 POINTS
Jones owners have been waiting forever for their boy to make
“The Leap” – it finally came in 2012. 32
homers, .505 SLG, 103 runs and then a strong showing for the USA at the World
Baseball Classic…get on board the bandwagon!
|
CBS
|
553
|
|
RotoChamp
|
527
|
|
Steamer
|
523
|
|
Bill James
|
525
|
|
Oliver
|
463
|
|
ZIPS
|
513
|
|
AVERAGE
|
517.3
|
#10 – SNAPDRAGONS – Yoenis
Cespedes, OAK – 74.38 POINTS
Oakland took a chance before the 2012 season, signing the
rookie free agent out of Cuba for big bucks.
Looks like the gamble is paying off.
The foundation of the Snappers young outfield for years to come…
|
CBS
|
539
|
|
RotoChamp
|
493
|
|
Steamer
|
460
|
|
Bill James
|
558
|
|
Oliver
|
408
|
|
ZIPS
|
501
|
|
AVERAGE
|
493.2
|
#11 – NORRIS SLUM
LORDS – Melky Cabrera, TOR – 72.90 POINTS
The Slum Lords welcome a known drug user into their fold…is
this one of Carlo’s tenants? All eyes
will be on Cabrera as the “All-in” Toronto Blue Jays are counting on juiced
Cabrera numbers, not pre-juice Cabrera…
|
CBS
|
539
|
|
RotoChamp
|
477
|
|
Steamer
|
457
|
|
Bill James
|
492
|
|
Oliver
|
433
|
|
ZIPS
|
502
|
|
AVERAGE
|
483.3
|
#12 – BROOKLYN BLUNTED
B – Nick Markakis, BAL – 72.78 POINTS
When the “Greek God of Mediocrity” is your #1 OF, that’s not
a great sign. ‘Kak actually had a decent
2012 when healthy, posting his highest SLG since his breakout year of…2008. Did you know Markakis has NEVER posted a
BABIP of less than .300? How is that
possible?
|
CBS
|
537
|
|
RotoChamp
|
499
|
|
Steamer
|
505
|
|
Bill James
|
489
|
|
Oliver
|
430
|
|
ZIPS
|
435
|
|
AVERAGE
|
482.5
|
#13 – T-BAGGERS – Mark
Trumbo, LAA – 69.76 POINTS
Trumbo does hit homers, bagging 61 in the past two seasons
combined. Doesn’t do much else, with a
career OBP of .302 and very little ability with the glove. Glove won’t matter much this year at DH, but
he’d better hit a ton to justify his roster spot…
|
CBS
|
500
|
|
RotoChamp
|
461
|
|
Steamer
|
390
|
|
Bill James
|
483
|
|
Oliver
|
472
|
|
ZIPS
|
469
|
|
AVERAGE
|
462.5
|
#14 – ROCKBUSTERS – Jason
Kubel, ARI – 62.95 POINTS
Could be worse. You
could be J.B., trotting Jason Kubel out there as your #1 guy in the
outfield. He’s coming off of a solid
2012 campaign, but the computers do not believe that he’ll get any better as he
turns 31 in May and saw his strikeout rate spike to 26.4% last season…
|
CBS
|
453
|
|
RotoChamp
|
419
|
|
Steamer
|
376
|
|
Bill James
|
435
|
|
Oliver
|
405
|
|
ZIPS
|
416
|
|
AVERAGE
|
417.3
|
RANKINGS AFTER 6
POSITIONS:
|
INFIELD
|
OF1
|
OF2
|
OF3
|
TOTAL
|
|
|
Daddy's Little Boys
|
459.93
|
95.93
|
555.86
|
||
|
Isotopes
|
424.82
|
82.76
|
507.58
|
||
|
MattroStars
|
424.54
|
81.95
|
506.49
|
||
|
Elephant Balls
|
426.26
|
78.83
|
505.09
|
||
|
Hells Kitchen Herzogs
|
417.41
|
78.03
|
495.44
|
||
|
Norris Slum Lords
|
418.93
|
72.90
|
491.83
|
||
|
Jackrabbits
|
404.04
|
87.68
|
491.73
|
||
|
Bashful Satanists
|
405.32
|
82.05
|
487.37
|
||
|
Limerick Lynchmob
|
397.55
|
79.03
|
476.58
|
||
|
T-Baggers
|
399.47
|
69.76
|
469.22
|
||
|
The H Tree
|
362.69
|
100.00
|
462.69
|
||
|
Brooklyn Blunted B
|
385.17
|
72.78
|
457.94
|
||
|
Snapdragons
|
381.23
|
74.38
|
455.62
|
||
|
Rox
|
387.14
|
62.95
|
450.08
|
Tomorrow – OF2
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