Methodology & Teams #12-14

Scott dissects the most junk filled farms first.

Methodology

I’ll make this brief since I’m sure most don’t care all that much; if you want a more detailed explanation let me know. I took prospect lists from 10 different sources. 5 went to 100 and the other 5 were less, ranging from 25 to 50. An average of a prospect ranking across all lists was then taken. Next, a discount factor was added based on the number of lists a player appeared on. Players on less than half the lists were discounted heavily and those on only 1 or 2 lists were discounted severely. This was done to help account for any significant variations between the lists (ie, one list has a prospect at #20 while all others don’t even list him). The resulting total was a prospect’s adjusted score. They were then ranked based on these adjusted scores and broken into categories. Each category was assigned quality points. Elite got 10, Outstanding - 8, Highly Regarded – 6.5, Above Average – 5, Average – 3.5, Respectable – 2.5, Marginal – 1 and Not Ranked 0.5. The prospects for each team were then compiled and the total quality points, average quality points per prospect and average rank per prospect were derived. Those categories were then ranked with 50% weighting going to overall quality points to reward depth and 25% going to average quality points and average ranking to reward quality of the prospects held. Values were then determined based on these rankings. I would take more from them then the actual rankings. The max score a team could get is 100 and the min score is 4.

The Rankings

Team rankings include (Total Quality Points / Average Quality Points / Average Rank)

After player’s name is (Woco Rank / Overall Prospect Rank)

14.) Brooklyn Blunted B (1.5 / 0.5 / NR) – Grade = 4.0

Kila Ka'aihue – NR / NR

Jeanmar Gomez – NR / NR

Yorman Bazardo – NR / NR

Wow. Where to even start here. This is the absolute worst score a team can receive. The Blunted own no ranked prospects and since each team is required to hold 3 prospects this is the absolute lowest a farm team could score. I’m not sure if they’re still communicating by Ham radio in Brooklyn or if maybe the “coming out” and subsequent loss of Randy Stopher to another lover has effected owner Sal (aka Ed Wade) Goldstein more than he’s let on. Bazardo is barely a prospect and had more walks than K’s in a brief MLB stint, Gomez is a soft tossing righty with #5 SP upside and Ka’aihue is a 1B/DH that can’t field and can’t hit for power. The simple fact that the Blunted could take any top prospect list, choose unowned players and come up with a better farm system than this speaks volumes.

Prospect Profile - Kila Ka'aihue

Pros – Major league ready, a sabermetrician’s dream with an over 18% walk rate each of the last 2 years

Cons – Old for a prospect, poor slugging percentage for a power hitter, poor fielder, the Royals chose to sign Mike Jacobs instead of giving him a chance, possible AAAA player

12t.) Norris Slum Lords (6.5 / 2.17 / 90.5) – Grade = 11.0

Tim Beckham – 33 / 42

Michael Bowden – NR / 139

Jake McGee – NR / NR

Yes, the Slum Lords farm system is bad but the picture is not as bleak as it might seem. While the system was not addressed the way it should have been in season last year the graduation of top prospects Matt LaPorta & Brett Anderson also had a large effect. Add them into the mix and the Slum Lords are probably middle of the pack. That said, excuses are like assholes and owner Carlo Cognata simply should have done a better job finding talent last season. Perhaps too many late nights at C-Note’s with co-Goodfella owner Jonny Wick was his problem. Beckham oozes with potential but had a slightly disappointing first year. McGee had great stuff but has been struggling to recover from Tommy John surgery and may be moved to the pen. Bowden’s lack of plus pitches was exposed last year and the comparisons to Jeff Suppan seem pretty apt. With an improved major league squad a good farm system needs to be in place if the Slum Lords want to sustain success.

Prospect Profile – Tim Beckham

Pros – Top pick of 2008 draft has tons of potential, he started and ended last season well with a slump in the middle which is not unusual for high schoolers in their first full year of pro ball, has the skills to stay at SS which is a premium fantasy position

Cons – Disappointing first full year for a top overall pick, still a minimum of 2-3 years away from the majors

12t.) Hells Kitchen Herzogs (6.5 / 1.63 / 92.5) – Grade =11.0

Julio Teheran – 38 / 55

Thomas Neal – 50 / 103

Travis Wood – NR / 104

Ethan Martin – NR / 108

The next Tommy Hanson Travis Wood is not but beyond that there is quite a bit of potential here for the Zogs despite their low ranking. Cooper always seem to do a nice job of finding minor leaguers right as they begin to breakout (Tulo, Maybin, Hanson) and he has two more potential candidates here in Teheran and Martin. Teheran was a top international signing that at the time was hailed as the next Felix Hernandez and to date has been treated with kid gloves by Atlanta. If Ynoa can have a similar season this year he should see a similar jump in his ranking. Martin was the Dodgers 1^st round pick in 2008 and showed flashes of brilliance (10.80 K/9) along with control struggles (5.50 W/9) in his first full season. If he can tighten his command he’ll shoot up the rankings next year. Neal tore up A+ last year but was helped by an incredibly high BABIP of .389. Still, solid walk and K rates show he could be a mid-level prospect if he can produce in AA. Travis Wood tore up the minors last year with great control and a nice mix of pitches but simply doesn’t have the stuff to be anything more than a #4/5 in the pros.

Prospect Profile – Julio Teheran

Pros – Electric stuff, numbers would likely be better if the Braves were no so cautious with him, thin frame leaves room to grow and add more velocity

Cons – Poor control of pitches other than the fastball, still far from the majors, small frame could leave him prone to wear down easily