11.) Elephant Balls (12.0 / 4.00 / 32.5) – Grade = 34.0
Wade Davis – 16 / 18
Mike Moustakas – 37 / 47
Deolis Guerra – NR / NR
It’s now been 3 years since our last look at each organization’s prospects and the E-Balls farm looks shockingly similar to the way it did back then. One highly regarded prospect that appears MLB ready, one enigma of a prospect who has the talent but has shown inconsistent results and one non-prospect who really doesn’t belong on a team (except maybe the Blunted). Let’s hope for George’s sake that Wade Davis does not turn out like Brandon Wood has. Its 3 years later and Wood still hasn’t been given a fair shake. But, if his late season call-up is any indication Davis should be able to stick in the majors this season. Mike Moustakas had a highly regarded bat out of high school but so far hasn’t been able to back it up with results. He’s still young enough and talented enough to warrant a top 50 ranking but if the results don’t come soon he’ll drop off the prospect map. Which, not surprisingly, brings us to Deolis Guerra one of the “prizes” of the Johan Santana deal. Guerra had a good mix of pitches that worked in the low minors but their lack of quality caused him to get knocked around in AA and lose his legitimate prospect status.
Prospect Profile – Wade Davis
Pros – Power fastball / curveball combo that he commands well, major league ready, great pitchers build, strong minor league K & FIP rates
Cons – Lack of a quality 3rd pitch could hold him back, flyball pitcher that could see his minor league HR rate of only 5.4% rise in the majors
10.) Jackrabbits (22.5 / 4.50 / 50.5) – Grade = 36.0
Kyle Drabek – 15 / 17
Michael Taylor – 20 / 23
Jenrry Meija – 35 / 45
Jason Knapp – NR / 117
Brad Holt – NR / NR
Example #1 of my post about how virtual non-prospects will hurt a team’s ranking. Drop Holt & Knapp and the Jackrabbits grade improves from 36.0 to 48.0. The top of this system is strong with former Phillies Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor and newest Met wonderkind Jenrry Meija. Drabek came back strong from Tommy John surgery in 2009 absolutely dominating A ball hitters and transitioning well to AA. He was at one point considered untouchable but as Breig says, no one is untouchable for the right price. Drabek has a chance to break camp with the Jays this year and at the very least should be up by midseason. Taylor is a physical freak at 6’6”, 250 lbs but his contact oriented swing lead some to question if he’ll ever put up the kind of power numbers his body type would suggest. At the very least he should be a quality MLB OFer. Meija is young and raw with terrific stuff but a long way to go. Knapp is coming off surgery caused by his unorthodox mechanics. He has an MLB fastball but still has a lot of work to do before he becomes a true top prospect. Holt is the classic case of a pitcher who’s stuff dominates A ball players but gets lit up in the higher levels. He could be a future #4/5 or middle reliever however.
Prospect Profile – Jenrry Meija
Pros – Terrific stuff for a 20 year old, plus curveball, plus change-up, hits 96 with his fastball, held his own in AA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.49 FIP
Cons – Poor command and therefore very inconsistent, more of a thrower than a pitcher
6.) The H-Tree (37.0 / 4.63 / 54.6) – Grade = 56.5
Mike Stanton – 6 / 7
Alcides Escobar – 13 / 15
Logan Morrison – 21 / 24
Jake Arrieta – 41 / 61
Jordan Lyles – 43 / 70
Eric Hosmer – 44 / 74
Jamie Garcia – NR / 131
Brandon Erbe – NR / NR
Coming into this league as an expansion team is not an easy task. The teams from the league’s 2007 expansion are a combined 66-111 with only one playoff appearance. That said, you have to like the base the H-Tree has laid. Mike Stanton is an absolute beast with enormous power potential who posted a .229 ISO in AA as a 19 year old. The high strikeout rates he’s shown are concerning but if Stanton can put it all together, watch out. Escobar is a case where superior defense inflates a prospect’s value. While his bat is definitely not top 20 material, a SS who can hit .280 and steal bases does have value in a 14 team league. Morrison is a highly debated prospect, some love him, some don’t think much of him. He’s shown a great knack for knowing the strike zone as evidenced by his high walk and relatively low strikeout rates. However, he still hasn’t shown the power you’d want from a 1B which has led to doubts about his ultimate potential. Still, power you can add whereas a batting eye is something you either have or don’t. Arrieta showed improved command last season and is near MLB ready, he just needs to firm up his curveball and change-up which are both a work in progress. Lyles dominated low-A ball and could be a player who jumps up the list next year if he can continue that performance. The same could be said for Eric Hosmer who was regarded as the top high school bat in the 2008 draft but struggled mightily last season. If the rumors of wrist problems are true he could take off in 2010. Garcia is a much injured prospect with solid GB rates that should fit in nicely to the Cardinals rotation if he can stay healthy. The fact that Erbe failed to make any of these lists is telling. His stuff is as good as any other prospects but after 3 years of not being able to put it together he’s fallen off the prospect map a bit. A good 2010 could change that quickly though.
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