Heck’s completely scientific season preview/analysis by position
SECOND BASEMEN
Methodology discussion: Jeff brought up the following yesterday – why don’t I weight the positions somehow to account for the fact
that 1Bs score more points than Catchers, etc.
The reason is that this sort of started out as an effort to find
something like PAR – Points Above Replacement Player. Those calculations would have to be
position-specific. And if you think
about it, I’m not sure we need to weight it anyway – all this shows is that the
difference between the #1 catcher and the #14 catcher is probably similar to
the difference between the #1 1B and the #14 1B from an overall points
perspective…
Now, that said, one aspect that I haven’t really figured out
how to account for is the players that the projections assume will get injured,
like you’ll see with Chase Utley at the bottom of the this post. The projections all have him getting about
450 ABs, which clearly assumes an injury.
If he did in fact get injured, Pete would replace him with the best
available free agent and get at least some sort of production out of that spot
for the other 150 ABs. But, we’ll see
how this all ends up shaking out before we worry about contingencies like
that…onto the projections!
#1 – HELLS KITCHEN
HERZOGS – Robinson Cano, NYY – 100 POINTS
Robby is all alone in the elite class of second
basemen. In a contract year with the
Yankees, but his supporting cast won’t be what he’s used to. Other than losing a handful of run and RBI
opportunities, shouldn’t impact him too much…
CBS
|
592
|
RotoChamp
|
618
|
Steamer
|
524
|
Bill James
|
575
|
Oliver
|
517
|
ZIPS
|
569
|
AVERAGE
|
565.8
|
#2 – ELEPHANT BALLS –
Ian Kinsler, TEX – 94.73 POINTS
Kinsler took a step back last year after a career year in
2011. Will be interesting to see if he’s
still at 2B by the end of the season as the Rangers may have to make room for
#1 overall prospect Jurickson Profar in that infield…
CBS
|
583
|
RotoChamp
|
549
|
Steamer
|
524
|
Bill James
|
577
|
Oliver
|
476
|
ZIPS
|
507
|
AVERAGE
|
536
|
#3 – DADDY’S LITTLE
BOYS – Ben Zobrist, TAM – 92.34 POINTS
What more can you say about Ben Zobrist? A huge asset for the DLB because of his
positional flexibility and consistent offensive production, Zorilla may
actually start the season as the Tampa Bay cleanup hitter in 2013. Pretty amazing…
CBS
|
545
|
RotoChamp
|
565
|
Steamer
|
507
|
Bill James
|
518
|
Oliver
|
491
|
ZIPS
|
509
|
AVERAGE
|
522.5
|
#4 – NORRIS SLUM
LORDS – Dustin Pedroia, BOS – 90.60 POINTS
Like Kinsler, Pedroia slipped a bit from a stellar 2011 last
year. The projections see him
stabilizing, but with his 30th birthday coming in August, it’s safe
to wonder if we’ll ever see those lofty 2011 numbers again…
CBS
|
581
|
RotoChamp
|
513
|
Steamer
|
508
|
Bill James
|
549
|
Oliver
|
446
|
ZIPS
|
479
|
AVERAGE
|
512.7
|
#5 – MATTROSTARS –
Jason Kipnis, CLE – 86.22 POINTS
We begin the next tier of 2Bs with a bit of a polarizing
figure in Jason Kipnis. The projection
models clearly give youngsters the benefit of the doubt, but I’ve seen Kipnis
on some watch lists during this offseason, concerned about his second half 2012
swoon…
CBS
|
512
|
RotoChamp
|
486
|
Steamer
|
474
|
Bill James
|
554
|
Oliver
|
448
|
ZIPS
|
453
|
AVERAGE
|
487.8
|
#6 – ROCKBUSTERS –
Jose Altuve, HOU – 84.18 POINTS
Little Jose doesn’t draw walks or drive the ball, but he
makes decent contact and runs the bases well.
And he’s only 22 years old, allowing for some projection, I
suppose. But the 6th overall
2B?
CBS
|
484
|
RotoChamp
|
476
|
Steamer
|
465
|
Bill James
|
432
|
Oliver
|
528
|
ZIPS
|
473
|
AVERAGE
|
476.3
|
#7 – LIMERICK
LYNCHMOB – Rickie Weeks, MIL – 82.89 POINTS
Rickie managed to stay healthy last year (only the second
time in his career above 130 games played) but unfortunately he wasn’t all that
great, posting an OPS of .728. Another
30-year old 2B, safe to wonder if we’ve seen the best of Mr. Weeks…
CBS
|
518
|
RotoChamp
|
462
|
Steamer
|
434
|
Bill James
|
517
|
Oliver
|
437
|
ZIPS
|
446
|
AVERAGE
|
469
|
#8 – BROOKLYN BLUNTED
B – Brandon Phillips, CIN – 82.68 POINTS
Not gonna lie, this projection really surprised me. Phillips turns 32 this season, but he’s been
as consistent as a metronome over the past 5 seasons. His BB% and ISO numbers are on a slow but
steady decline, so I suppose the models aren’t going to cut him any slack…
CBS
|
485
|
RotoChamp
|
461
|
Steamer
|
455
|
Bill James
|
501
|
Oliver
|
432
|
ZIPS
|
473
|
AVERAGE
|
467.8
|
#9 – T-BAGGERS –
Aaron Hill, ARI – 82.65 POINTS
The curious case of Aaron Hill – followed up a positively
brutal 2011 campaign with a career season at the age of 30. The projections appear to be splitting the
difference on whether Hill can repeat that success this year…
CBS
|
480
|
RotoChamp
|
479
|
Steamer
|
463
|
Bill James
|
488
|
Oliver
|
431
|
ZIPS
|
465
|
AVERAGE
|
467.7
|
#10 – JACKRABBITS –
Dan Uggla, ATL – 82.30 POINTS
In real life, Dan has gone from a mashing
middle-of-the-order presence to a strikeout machine that occasionally runs into
one (and a butcher in the field). On a
Braves team with playoff aspirations, the 33-year old needs to get off to a
strong start in 2013…
CBS
|
510
|
RotoChamp
|
450
|
Steamer
|
409
|
Bill James
|
525
|
Oliver
|
446
|
ZIPS
|
454
|
AVERAGE
|
465.7
|
#11 – ISOTOPES – Neil
Walker, PIT – 80.74 POINTS
Doesn’t it feel like Walker’s been around forever? In his 3rd year in the bigs, he
continued a gradual uptick in WAR and his rate stats, which the projections
forecast to continue to improve marginally.
Good enough for #11 on the list.
CBS
|
482
|
RotoChamp
|
441
|
Steamer
|
443
|
Bill James
|
490
|
Oliver
|
425
|
ZIPS
|
460
|
AVERAGE
|
456.8
|
#12 – SNAPDRAGONS – Dustin
Ackley – 80.68 POINTS
Ackley’s first full season in the majors was a huge
disappointment, as the former Tar Heel put up an anemic .622 OPS in 153 games
for the Mariners. They’re bringing in
the fences at Safeco, though, so maybe Dustin can relax and pop a few this year…
CBS
|
495
|
RotoChamp
|
437
|
Steamer
|
443
|
Bill James
|
448
|
Oliver
|
446
|
ZIPS
|
470
|
AVERAGE
|
456.5
|
#13 – BASHFUL SATANISTS
– Howard Kendrick, LAA – 71.55 POINTS
Howie, I just can’t quit you. Once touted as a future batting champion,
Kendrick has never been able to put it all together at the Major League
level. I’m giving him one more chance…or
until a better option presents itself…
CBS
|
419
|
RotoChamp
|
397
|
Steamer
|
343
|
Bill James
|
447
|
Oliver
|
402
|
ZIPS
|
421
|
AVERAGE
|
404.8
|
#14 – THE H TREE – Chase
Utley, PHI – 68.92 POINTS
As mentioned above, here’s where the analysis can break down
a little. Obviously, most of us would
take a healthy Utley over most of the scrubs on this list. However, the projections won’t give Utley
credit for staying healthy (nor should they).
So here he sits…
CBS
|
436
|
RotoChamp
|
437
|
Steamer
|
319
|
Bill James
|
442
|
Oliver
|
355
|
ZIPS
|
351
|
AVERAGE
|
390
|
RANKINGS AFTER 3
POSITIONS:
C
|
1B
|
2B
|
SS
|
3B
|
TOTAL
|
|
Norris Slum Lords
|
81.49
|
98.41
|
90.6
|
270.5
|
||
Daddy's Little Boys
|
75.33
|
100
|
92.34
|
267.667
|
||
Elephant Balls
|
81.79
|
88.18
|
94.73
|
264.697
|
||
Hells Kitchen Herzogs
|
73.96
|
90.46
|
100
|
264.419
|
||
MattroStars
|
89.19
|
84.33
|
86.22
|
259.728
|
||
Isotopes
|
100
|
74.74
|
80.74
|
255.471
|
||
Limerick Lynchmob
|
65.98
|
98.13
|
82.89
|
247
|
||
T-Baggers
|
87.23
|
77.05
|
82.65
|
246.935
|
||
Bashful Satanists
|
98.36
|
72.87
|
71.55
|
242.77
|
||
Brooklyn Blunted B
|
68.38
|
86.11
|
82.68
|
237.171
|
||
Snapdragons
|
72.31
|
77.05
|
80.68
|
230.041
|
||
Jackrabbits
|
55.1
|
89.35
|
82.3
|
226.744
|
||
Rox
|
79.33
|
62.69
|
84.18
|
226.2
|
||
The H Tree
|
58.69
|
80.31
|
68.92
|
207.93
|
Tomorrow – Shortstops…
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