Week 8 Review

Erik Estrada has spent much of the 2011 season getting T-Bagged...

Week 8 Review

My apologies for the delay in getting this out – various issues have interfered with this important work over the past few weeks, but here it finally is…

On March 30th, Rocky wrote the following: The Teapot is whistling and the Baggers are looking to dunk! From the basement to the penthouse, 2011 will mark the culmination of the greatest turn around in league franchise history and the blueprint for all rebuilding franchises. (Quick note this includes making as many trades with John Breig as possible) Not a weakness anywhere, and depth to back it up, this is the complete team of 2011, a LDJ division title and a championship will have everyone opening wide and saying aaahhhh.

T-Baggers – what’s going on??? I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m opening wide and saying “WTF?”

Now onto the Week 8 reviews…

Bashful Satanists (5-3) d. Isotopes (1-7) 323.17 – 280.67
Satanists use 11-start week to weather injury storm, ease past ‘topes…

Satanists MVP – SS James Rollins – 33 actual points, 19 projected (+14)
Satanists LVP – 2B Howard Kendrick – 0 actual points, 20 projected (-20). What was supposed to be “Day-to-day” quickly became “15-Day DL”…
Max possible score – 386.67
C – JP Arencibia in, Buster Posey out (for the season) (+14). Welcome to the lineup, JP.
2B – Martin Prado in, Howard Kendrick out (+15)
U – Chris Coghlan in, “Dewey” Choo out (+17)
SP – Fausto Carmona in, Rick Porcello out (+17.5)
Stat Watch – The Satanists are in the top 2 in several pitching categories, including QS (44, 1st), QS% (69%, 2nd), WHIP (1.213, 1st), K/BB (3.202, 2nd), IP (460, 2nd). So why are they only 4th in total pitching points? Tied with the ‘topes for dead last in saves (11, thanks Ryan Franklin) and middle of the road in Wins (25, 7th), they’ve left a lot of points on the table. The Satanists are 10th in hitting with the league’s 2nd lowest OBP (0.3246).

Isotopes MVP – OF Jacoby Ellsbury – 42 actual points, 22 projected (+20)
Isotopes LVP – SP Chris Narveson – -1.33 actual points, 15 projected (-16.33)
Max possible score – 311.33
1B – Mitch Moreland in, Justin Smoak out (+4). After a 1-week respite, the wrong 1B call is back!
SP – Carlos Carrasco in, Chris Narveson out (+21.83)
SP – Wade Davis in, Josh Tomlin out (+2)
RP – Eduardo Sanchez in, Ryan Madson out (+2.83)
Stat Watch – Looking for reasons for optimism in Springfield despite the 1-7 record? The team is dead last in pitching points but is T2nd in QS (42) and 3rd in QS% (66%), suggesting that maybe things will come around. However, the pitching staff is dead last in K/9 (6.265) and K/BB (2.070) which indicates that perhaps the QS% is a mirage (owning 3/5ths of the Cleveland starting rotation will do that). On the hitting side, the ‘topes have the 8th highest point total thanks to a speedy lineup that easily leads the CWFLB in steals (59) while posting the 2nd best SB% (83.1%). This is countered by the 3rd lowest SLG% in the league (0.4131).

Mattrostars (6-2) d. Daddy’s Little Boys (7-1) 339 – 297.83
Stars ride 3 monster weeks (Bruce, Gallardo & Kershaw) to huge win over rival DLB, ’72 Dolphins alumni pop champagne corks as league’s final unbeaten team falls…

Mattrostars MVP – OF Jay Bruce – 47 actual points, 20 projected (+27)
Mattrostars LVP – SP Jorge De La Rosa – 3.17 actual points, 35 projected (-31.83)
Max possible score – 371.17
U – Alex Gordon in, Ichiro out (+15). 4th straight week Ichiro’s name has said “out” next to it…
2B – Allen Craig in, Lil’ Chase out (+3)
SP – Edwin Jackson in, Jorge De La Rosa out (for the year) (+6.17)
RP – Joel Hanrahan in, Drew Storen out (+8)
Stat Watch – The Mattrostars lead in overall pitching by a staggering 180 points. 1st in IP (467 1/3), 1st in K’s (414), T1st in Wins (30), 1st in CG (8), T2nd in QS (42), 1st in ERA (2.99), 2nd in WHIP (1.220), 1st in QS% (70%), and 1st in K/9 (7.97). Phew. They are 3rd overall in hitting with a .790 OPS (3rd) and 66 home runs (3rd). Since starting off 1-2, here is their point ranking by week – 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st. Egads.

DLB MVP – OF Carl Crawford – 45 actual points, 23 projected (+22). Guess who’s back, guess who’s back…
DLB LVP – SP John Danks – 5 actual points, 28 projected (-23). Gets K-Rod’s -4.83 performance off the hook…
Max possible points – 349.83 (enough to win)
2B – Danny Espinosa in, Ben Zobrist out (+5)
SP – Chad Billingsley in, John Danks out (+14)
RP – Sergio Santos in, K-Rod out (+33)
Stat Watch – And here we have the league’s most potent offense, to nobody’s surprise. 1st in home runs (70), 2nd in RBI (259), T1st in runs (259), 2nd in SB (43), 2nd in walks (209), 2nd in OPS (.8017). Also 1st in plate appearances, an underrated but critical stat when it comes to piling up points. The pitching has been surprisingly effective (to this reporter), ranking 3rd overall. Nothing really jumps out at you aside from the saves (29, 1st) and the won-loss record (18 wins, tied for last, and 28 losses, 2nd most). Should be interesting to see if the staff can keep it up, especially considering that their best performer to date (Pineda) is likely to be on an IP limit and could get shut down in September…

Brooklyn Blunted B (5-3) d. H Tree (2-6) 324.5 – 275.5
Blunted coast to victory despite leaving over 100 points on the bench and another box office disaster from the Scherzinator…

Blunted MVP – RP JJ Putz – 40.5 actual points, 15 projected (+25.5)
Blunted LVP – SP Max Scherzer – -8.5 actual points, 15 projected (-23.5). For the love of God, GET THIS GUY OFF THE SCREEN!
Max possible score – 432
3B – Chase Headley in, Danny Valencia out (+8). Another running item returns!
U – Raul Ibanez in, Brett Gardner out (+31). WTF?
SP – Scott Baker in, Max Scherzer out (+29.5)
SP – Freddy G in, Shaun Marcum “if ya’ got ‘em” out (+13.17)
RP – Carlos Zambrano in, Joakim Soria out (+25.83)
Stat Watch – All eyes will be on the Blunted pitching staff moving forward – currently 8th overall (but only 50 points from 4th), they have benefitted from some luck in the win column. Despite being second to last in QS (30) and dead last in QS% (52%), they are only one win shy of the league lead (29). The league average is .65 wins per QS, while the Blunted are converting at 97%. Obviously this is unsustainable. That said, the Blunted staff is 5th in ERA and 3rd in WHIP, so we can reasonably expect that the QS% will increase. Offensively, the Blunted are 5th overall without a single defining stat – middle of the road across the board.

H Tree MVP – SP Kyle Lohse – 49.5 actual points, 23 projected (+26.5)
H Tree LVP – SP Jaime Garcia - -7.83 actual points, 16 projected (-23.83)
Max Possible points – 315.67
SP – Mike Pelfrey in, Jaime Garcia out (+28.17)
SP – James McDonald in, Derek Holland out (+12)
Stat Watch – The Tree has been the unluckiest team in the CWFLB thus far, dropping two games despite being in the top half of league scoring (including one with the 2nd highest point total) without getting any lucky wins to counter. The pitching staff ranks 5th overall, a mild shock given the squad’s youth and lack of star power. A pair of Cardinals, Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia, have shouldered the load thus far. Will they be able to continue? The Tree team ERA ranks 2nd in the league (3.40) and has the fewest losses (15) while leading the league in holds (6) thanks to the early season Venters/Kimbrel experiment. Lack of offense is holding the Tree down, most importantly lack of plate appearances – they are dead last in PAs with 1,671, 63 behind the next lowest team. Hard to accumulate points when you’re sitting on the bench. The Tree is also painfully slow (as the team name would suggest) – their 15 steals trail the next lowest team by 16, and they’ve been caught stealing 10 times for a pathetic SB% of 60%.

Limerick Lynchmob (4-4) d. Snapdragons (3-5) 267.83 - 260
Lynchmob pick up second straight “lucky win” with late surge against Snappers…

Lynchmob MVP – 2B Rickie Weeks – 33 actual points, 21 projected (+12)
Lynchmob LVP – SP Jake Peavy – 3 actual points, 23 projected (-20)
Max possible score – 331.33
OF – Domonic Brown in, Mike Cuddyer out (+13)
SP – CJ Wilson in, Jake Peavy out (+21.17)
SP – Kevin Correia in, Madison Bumgarner out (+12.17)
RP – Matt Harrison in, Kyle Farnsworth out (+17.17)
Stat Watch – One of the reasons that this post was delayed was that I felt like the Mob has been involved in some close games, so I went back and ran margins of victory for everyone…and I found out that I was completely wrong. This was the Mob’s first “close game” (10 point margin or less) of the year. They’ve also had one blowout loss (more than 100 point margin) and one blowout win. In fact, their average margin is a little over 60 points per week – not much excitement there.

Snappers MVP – OF Josh Willingham – 32 actual points, 16 projected (+16)
Snappers LVP – SP Jhoulys Chacin – 16.5 actual points, 36 projected (-19.5)
Max possible points – 288.5 (enough to win)
SP – Mat Latos in, Trevor Cahill out (+21.5)
SP – Andrew Oliver in, Travis Wood out (+1)
OF – John Mayberry in, Michael Brantley out (+6)
Stat Watch – Through week 8, the Snappers were second to last in points scored, which would lead you to believe that they are fortunate to be 3-5…and yet, they have suffered two unlucky losses (against one lucky win), losing despite the 5th best point total in Weeks 1 and 6. So really, they “should be” 4-4. Week 3’s 183.83 point output (lowest for anyone this season) is a big reason for the overall points ranking…

Rockbusters (4-4) d. Elephant Balls (3-5) 290.33 – 239
Offense picks up the slack as Rox roll over E-Balls…

Rockbusters MVP – RP Jordan Walden – 38.5 actual points, 16 projected (+22.5)
Rockbusters LVP – SP Luke Hochevar – 0.5 actual points, 11 projected (-10.5)
Max possible score – 327.83
U – Freddie Freeman in, Frenchy out (+4)
SP – Aaron Harang in, Luke Hochevar out (+19)
SP – Jonny Sanchez in, Colby Lewis out (+14.5)
Stat Watch – Through Week 8, the Rox boast the league’s 2nd best pitching staff…and 2nd worst offense. None of the pitching numbers jump out at you, but James Shields and Josh Beckett have been dominant. JB is mixing and matching with guys like Harang, Hochevar, Penny, Sanchez, and Burnett to fill in the blanks. The offense, on the other hand, just hasn’t been good, with the league’s 2nd lowest OPS (.730), 2nd fewest HRs (42) and most errors (36).

E-Balls MVP – 2B Kelly Johnson – 33 actual points, 19 projected (+14)
E-Balls LVP – RP Mariano Rivera – -1.83 actual points, 20 projected (-21.83)
Max possible score – 288.17
C – John Buck in (4 pts), Jorge Posada out (3 pts) (+1). Gack…
SP – Paul Maholm in, Tom Gorzelanny out (+32.5)
SP – Jon Garland in, Zach Britton out (+3.83)
RP – Mark Melancon in, Mariano Rivera out (+11.83). Second week in a row. My God, what is this world coming to?
Stat Watch – Frankly, the E-Balls have no business being 3-5 while two other teams have worse records. They’ve been outscored by almost 500 points and have over 200 fewer points than the next lowest team (the ‘topes). They have only one “lucky win” to their credit…so what’s gone wrong? Well, everything. Dead last in the following offensive categories – Hits (354), Triples (3), HR (35), RBI (170), Runs (192), BA (.225!), OBP (.312), SLG (.346), and overall points (1157). At least they’re not worst in overall pitching points…they’re 6 points away from worst. Dead last in QS (29), only the bullpen of Mariano Rivera and Brian Wilson has saved the Balls…and even Rivera has faltered lately. Things are getting so bad that Jorge Posada has threatened to quit on the team…

Jackrabbits (5-3) d. Hells Kitchen Herzogs (4-4) 308.33 – 230.17
Rabbits right ship, cruise to victory over arm-weary ‘Zogs…

Rabbits MVP – SS Jose Reyes – 33 actual points, 20 projected (+13)
Rabbits LVP – RP Vance Worley – -1 actual points, 25 projected (-26)
Max possible points – 387.67
U – Andres Torres in, Vlad Guerrero out (+8)
SP – JA Happ in, Derek Lowe out (+30.83)
SP – Juan Nicasio in, Carl “Ace” Pavano out (+6.5)
RP – Brandon League in, Vance “Vanimal” Worley out (+34)
Stat Watch – All of the Rabbits’ pre-season marketing materials were dedicated to their “18 Aces” or however many that Brandon was pimping…but the Rabbits’ pitching has been a disappointment thus far, ranking just 6th overall. Only Cole Hamels and CC Sabathia have consistently pitched like aces. The hitting, however, ranks 4th overall behind huge comeback years from Jose Reyes and Matt Kemp. The Rabbits are 2nd in HR (67) behind Ryan Howard, Kemp, Nellie Cruz and Chris Young. If Dan Uggla ever emerges from his season-long coma, the Rabbit offense could make a run at the DLB…

Herzogs MVP – 3B Michael Young – 25 actual points, 15 projected (+10)
Herzogs LVP – SP Wandy Rodriguez – 0 actual points, 18 projected (-18). I don’t remember why Wandy didn’t pitch, but frankly I just don’t care.
Max possible points – 299.33
OF – Franklin Gutierrez in, Jason Bay out (+2)
SP – Charlie Furbush in, Wandy Rodriguez out (+28.33). Heh heh…I just typed “Furbush”…
SP – Mike Leake in, Tommy Hanson out (+12.17)
SP – Jason Hammel in, Jeremy Guthrie out (+8)
RP – Carlos Villanueva in, Matt Capps out (+18.67)
Stat Watch – The Herzogs are only 2.5 pitching points out of the cellar for worst overall pitching staff. Dead last in Wins (18) and ERA (4.06), 2nd to last in QS% (53%). The staff has posted 3 weeks of less than 100 points, a feat matched by only the Isotopes and E-Balls. There is cause for optimism, however – the Herzog pitching staff leads the league in K/BB (3.37) and is 2nd in K/9IP (7.76), which would lead us to believe that better days may be ahead. The offense has embraced small-ball en route to an overall offensive ranking of 6th, leading the CWFLB in doubles (109), BA (.280) and SB% (84.2%, 32 SB, 6 CS).

Norris Slum Lords (4-4) d. T-Baggers (3-5) 291.33 – 286.83
Baggers get “Arroyo’ed” as they lose a close contest to the Lords…

Lords MVP – OF Melky Cabrera – 27 actual points, 14 projected (+13)
Lords LVP – SP Jason Vargas – -4.67 actual points, 27 projected (-31.67). Wasn’t pitching against the Phillies in Week 8, apparently…
Max possible points – 361.5
OF – Denard Span in, Matt Holliday out (+32)
SP – Brian Duensing in, Jason Vargas out (+20.17)
SP – Clayton Richard in, Bartolo Colon out (+8.5)
RP – Tim Stauffer in, Carlos Marmol out (+9.5)
Stat Watch – The Lords’ offense is ranked #2 in the league, with the highest OPS (.814), OBP (.358), most Runs (259) and fewest errors (15). The pitching staff sits 9th, a good portion of that being bad luck with Wins per Quality Start – league average is .65 Wins/QS, the Lords are only converting at a .46 clip. Combined with a pretty low save total (17), there’s room for improvement here.

T-Baggers MVP – SP David Price – 33 actual points, 19 projected (+14)
T-Baggers LVP – SP Bronson Arroyo – -13.17 actual points, 28 projected (-41.17). There’s a reason that the official CWFLB term for a negative start is an “Arroyo”…
Max possible score – 319.67 (enough to win. Actually, Bronson Arroyo getting struck by lightning Monday morning would have been enough to win)
OF – Colby Rasmus in, Peter Bourjos out (+8)
U – Mark Trumbo in, Billy Butler out (+2)
RP – Chris Sale in, Kelly Gregg out (+9.67)
SP – Erik Estrada in, Bronson Arroyo out (+13.17)
Stat Watch – As mentioned above, this season has been shockingly mediocre thus far for the Baggers. True, they’ve lost two games by less than 5 points, but they are also the beneficiaries of 2 lucky wins (Weeks 3 & 6) against one unlucky loss (Week 5), which means their “true record” should be 2-6! It’s hard to put a finger on one reason for the struggles – losing Longoria for a few weeks hurt, Wieters just isn’t blossoming as expected, Beckham’s been a disappointment…but this is still the same roster that was expected to do great things this year. Instead? 8th overall in points, 3rd fewest HRs (45), 2nd fewest RBI (186), fewest Games Started (55), 2nd fewest IP (395 2/3). On top of that, the Baggers have been very fortunate with Wins, getting 27 wins against only 32 QS. So there could be some regression there as well. All in all, a very surprising first third of the season from Rocky’s pre-season media darlings.