20 Most Overrated Prospects in the CWFLB

Recognize this guy? He's our #1 overrated prospect...

You guys know how much I love all of the chatter about prospects around here. If you have some good ones – hey, congratulations. Most of them aren’t going to pan out. For those that do, you have cost certainty for a few…wait – there are no salaries in this league? So, um, the difference between the average “Proven Veteran” and the hotshot prospect is what exactly? Last year’s super-stud, can’t miss OF prospect/rookie Jason Heyward finished 28th in points among OFers in 2010, behind cast-offs like Juan Pierre, Drew Stubbs, Delmon Young (another former “can’t miss” prospect who missed for about 5 seasons in a row) and Nick Swisher.

Anyway, I’ll get off my soapbox and get to the list. If a guy is projected to play for his MLB team this year but appeared on any of the 3 top 100 prospect lists that I used, he’s eligible. And if he didn’t appear on any of those lists? Well…he’ll probably end up on this one. And finally, the more barking you’ve been doing about said player, the more likely he is to be overrated. Because he’s still only a prospect for God’s sake!

I tried to have all CWFLB teams represented on this list, but there may be a couple missing. Sorry. The numbers in parentheses after the name represents the prospect’s ranking by Keith Law/Baseball America/Baseball Prospectus. Enjoy!

20. Devin Mesoraco - C, Jackrabbits (31/64/53)
Had my Jason Knapp write-up all set for right here, and Brandon goes and swaps him out with “Future Franchise Catcher” Devin Mesoraco. So, I’ll swap him right on in here, mostly because of Brandon’s instant analysis hyperbole. Now, it’s quite possible that the light finally went on for Mesoraco in 2010, as he posted a monster year. Makes you (or Brandon, at least) want to forget about the lousy first 3 years of his pro career where he consistently posted OBPs of .310 and never pushed his slugging over .400. There’s a reason this guy was still available on waivers after the 2011 entry draft. Let’s see you do it again, Devin.

19. Andrew Cashner - SP, Jackrabbits (NR/NR/NR)
While we’re talking Jackrabbit prospects, let’s talk Cashner. Not technically a prospect for rankings purposes, I felt I’d be remiss if I left him off the list after Brandon’s hallucinogenic rant from the other day. Brandon mentioned that he was the “best pitcher in the minor leagues in 2010”. While a 2.05 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 9.3K per 9IP over 57 innings is nothing to sneeze at…um, let’s not get carried away. Once called up to the bigs, the K rate held over 54.1 innings but the ERA climbed to 4.80, WHIP to 1.56 and “Flashner” allowed 1.3 HR per 9 innings.

18. Matt Harvey - SP, Slumlords (83/NR/75)
Harvey has yet to throw a professional pitch, but was the #7 overall pick in the 2010 MLB entry draft. As a Tar Heel, I’ll be pulling for him, but he had a pretty mediocre career at Carolina before dramatic improvements during his Junior year. And, there’s a little guilt by association working here…he’s now in the Mets organization. By the end of the 2011 season, the Mets minor leagues may have to disband in a cost-cutting move to dig out from the Madoff scandal. Good luck, Matt.

17. Mark Trumbo - 1B, T-Baggers (NR/NR/NR)
The 25-year old Trumbo used his 6th year in minor league ball to crush AAA pitching to the tune of 36 homers and a .945 OPS, both career highs by a wide margin. Unfortunately for this one-time 18th round draft pick, he sort of profiles as the classic quad-A guy, beating up on younger competition after many turns around the bush leagues. A short call-up the majors yielded 1 hit in 15 ABs with 8 punchouts. Looks like he’s going to get an extended shot at the bigs with Kendry Morales’ slow return from injury – we’ll see if his spot on this list is deserved.

16. Rubby de la Rosa - SP, Mattrostars (94/90/NR)
This pick is mostly due to this guy’s ridiculous name. Rubby? Really? What is that, a failed Care Bear or something? Anyway, this Rubby put up decent numbers splitting time between single and double-A last year – 2.37 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.7K/9IP, excellent ground ball rate. My guess is, batters are having a hard time keeping a straight face in the batter’s box. They step in, the catcher tells them they’re about to face “Rubby”…I mean, how can a guy concentrate after that? Guys in the show aren’t going to fall for that…

15. Lance Lynn - SP, Slum Lords (NR/NR/NR)
Carlo must have super-secret scouts all over the country, because Lynn went unrated in the top publications after a pedestrian 2010 in AAA that saw him post a 4.77 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 1.15 HR allowed per 9 innings. So I went back and checked the 2010 prospect lists. Not there. 2009? Not there either. Carlo, where did you find this guy? Well, wherever you found him, it doesn’t look like he’s very good…

14. Tanner Scheppers - SP, Isotopes (NR/84/79)
Scheppers finally signed with the Rangers after the 2009 draft after turning down contracts from the Orioles in 2005 and the Pirates in 2008. After a year in Independent Ball, the Rangers fast-tracked him to AAA where he struggled to a 5.48 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 69 innings while striking out 71. The arm is still there, but the history of guys who lose years of development because of contract squabbles is not so good. Speaking of which…

13. Aaron Crow - SP, Satanists (NR/NR/NR)
Aaron Crow was selected 9th overall in the 2008 draft by the Washington Nationals, and decided not to sign. After a year of Independent Ball, he was drafted by the Royals and began his professional career. And the results were not particularly pretty. He’s on a short leash in the Satanists’ minor league system, where GM Heck is hoping to put together the first “all animal name” minor league roster. So far – Trout and Crow. If anyone can think of a good animal-named prospect, let me know…

12. Matt Dominguez - 3B, Satanists (55/81/80)
While I’m criticizing my own prospects, how about all-field no-hit Dominguez? His prospect rankings are almost exclusively due to his fielding prowess and future gap-hitting projection. Super. As he can’t even hit his weight down in Spring Training, it looks like he’s going to lose the opening day job to Omar Infante. Never a good sign.

11. Zach Lee - SP, Elephant Balls (91/89/54)
When Lee was drafted by the Dodgers in the 2010 MLB entry draft, he was viewed as an impossible sign. It was thought in the industry that the Dodgers were intentionally punting the pick because of Frank McCourt’s money problems and they would gladly take the following year’s compensation pick. Sure enough, they turned around and got him signed. Now George owns him. This kid is apparently a phenomenal athlete who was slated to play QB at LSU (eventually), but he is a long way from the show. And knowing that he has that football bug in his ear to fall back on if baseball doesn’t work out right away is enough to scare me into putting him on this list…

10. Jameson Taillon - SP, Herzogs (30/11/8)
Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus love Taillon, and why not? He was the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft out of Texas high school, big arm, 6’6”…what’s not to love? I’ll tell you what – he was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates. By definition, he has to be downgraded. He’s only 19 – that gives the Pirates system at least 3 years to completely screw this kid up. How many frontline starting pitchers have come all the way through the Pirate system over the past 20 years? I know Cooper was thrilled that Taillon made it to him in this year’s entry draft, but if I were him I’d be rooting for a trade…

9. Aroldis Chapman - RP, Isotopes (15/7/6)
Remember – we’re not talking about not good, we’re just talking about overrated. And yes, the “Cuban Missile” can throw it through a wall, but his minor league numbers were somewhat pedestrian (3.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, crapload of Ks) which makes you wonder if major leaguers will start to adjust to him as they see him over and over. Also, he’s stuck in middle relief limbo right now, which doesn’t have a whole lot of fantasy value.

8. Domonic Brown - OF, Lynchmob (3/4/4)
Domonic Brown? The same guy who put up a .980 OPS between double and triple-A last year and crushed a double off the wall in his first at-bat in the show? Well, I don’t know – you tell me with a straight face that you saw his at-bats in September and then down in Clearwater before he broke his hand and didn’t think to yourself “Not sure that this kid’s gonna make it.” I know, I know, small sample size, etc. Just sayin’ – not sure he’s the guaranteed lock/sure thing that the #4 overall prospect in baseball should be.

7. Stephen Strasburg - SP and Bryce Harper - CF, H Tree (2/1/1)
I think we can all agree that these two guys are just overrated by definition. Back-to-back #1 overall picks in the MLB draft and likewise in the CWFLB entry draft, there have been countless blog postings, magazine articles and the like extolling the virtues of these two wonderkids. But here’s the problem – right now, they’re both broken. Harper recently suffered a “medium” sprain of his ankle during Spring Training and will start the 2011 season on the minor league DL, while Strasburg flamed out after 12 (impressive) major league starts after blowing out his elbow. H Tree GM Peter English obviously hopes that Stephen recovers from surgery with the same dominating stuff as he showed in his brief stop in the show, but only time will tell.

6. Jesus Montero - C(?), Mattrostars (4/3/3)
Mattro’s going to get one year of catcher eligibility out of Montero thanks to CBS Sportsline’s inane policy of sticking with whatever position a player came through the minor league system playing, but after that it will likely be Utility only for this bulky hitter. Yes, Montero has hit the ball at every level of the minors, but the Yankees’ efforts to keep him behind the plate seem to be nearing an end based on the reports of scouts from the Grapefruit League, and Montero’s 2011 Spring performance left much to be desired – according to many, Montero appeared to take the foot off the gas and coasted as if he was guaranteed a job in the Bronx. He was quickly sent down to the minor league camp. Will motivation always be an issue for this guy?

5. Mike Moustakas - 3B, Blunted B (23/9/7)
Moustakas had an up-and-down first few years in professional ball until breaking out in 2010 to the tune of a .999 OPS between AA and AAA. However, while it’s difficult to find home/road and right/left splits on minor leaguers, anecdotally it appears that Moustakas hit most of his AA home runs at home, a notoriously easy power park, and struggled mightily against lefties at AAA. He certainly climbed back up the rankings lists with his strong 2010 and is part of the best minor league system in baseball, but it’s hard to say whether he’s truly turned the corner or still has serious holes in his game.

4. Carlos Martinez - SP, Daddy’s Little Boys (52/NR/NR)
First of all – at 19 years old, Martinez is a long way from the bigs, which diminishes his value. But what I can’t get past is the one write-up I was able to find about him…first he signed as a shortstop, but “identity issues” torpedoed that deal. Now he’s a pitcher. Once his name was Carlos Matias, now it’s Martinez. Doesn’t this sound more like a potential perp from “To Catch a Predator” than a major league pitcher?

3. Chris Archer - SP, Jackrabbits (40/27/70)
Another nice prospect that is being brutally overhyped by owner Brandon Brown, Archer put up a stellar 2010 campaign between single and double A ball, striking out more than 9 batters per 9 innings and posting a 2.34 ERA. Archer’s future success or failure will ride on his control (or lack thereof) – his 4.1 BB per 9 innings in 2010 was the best mark of his 5 year pro career. The important thing to ask before anointing this guy a future “ace” is this: if he is that good, how could he have been traded for Mark DeRosa and Matt Garza in separate deals?

2. Tim Beckham - SS, Slumlords (NR/NR/NR)
Carlo – we know this guy was the #1 overall pick in the 2008 MLB entry draft. It turns out that he isn’t very good. When 2010 highlight on your www.milb.com biography is “reduced his errors at shortstop to 25 in 2010”…it’s probably time to cut the cord. Matt Bush was a #1 overall pick once upon a time too – he’s available on the waiver wire if you’re interested…

1. Michael Ynoa - SP, Mattrostars (NR/NR/NR)
Man, how much did we hear about this guy back in the day? It’s hard to believe that he’s only 19 years old, it feels like it was that long ago that Mattro started crowing over this coup. Ynoa didn’t even last as long as Stephen Strasburg – 9 Arizona League innings into his pro career, Ynoa needed Tommy John surgery and will be lost until at least the 2012 season. The hype around this guy got to the point where I was expecting a modern-day Sidd Finch. Instead, we have ourselves another broken-down prospect. While there are plenty of major league pitchers that have survived Tommy John surgery, it’s anyone’s guess as to whether Ynoa will ever be the same.