Wednesday, March 19, 2008

The Expansion Draft Revisited


Decisions to protect guys like Eddie Guardado (above) and Jorge
Sosa have turned the Blunted Stophers into league laughingstocks.



First in a series by Greg Heck

Before the 2006 season, the CWFLB welcomed two new teams into the fold – John Breig and AC Slater brought AC’s Gun Show, and Greg Heck led the Bashful Satanists. This necessitated the first expansion draft in CWFLB history. I thought it might be fun to take a look back at which players were protected by their charter teams, how the draft went, and how some of those players have fared in the interim.

The original teams were able to protect 11 of their 25 active players, and minor leaguers were off limits for the expansion draft. After a team lost their first player, they could protect 2 more, and could protect one more after each subsequent pick until a maximum of 5 players were taken from their teams.

First we’ll take a look at who was on the original protected lists and whom those owners might wish they left unprotected…

Daddy’s Little Boys

No-Brainers: 1B Ortiz, 1B Teixeira, OF M Cabrera, OF Dunn, SP Santana, SP Sabathia
Effective when Healthy: SP Sheets, SP Burnett, SP Schilling
Off-and-On: RP Lidge
Drop List: SS B. Crosby

The DLB came in with a pretty stacked team, so these weren’t particularly difficult decisions. 9 of the 11 are still with the team – Bobby Crosby was dropped and Adam Dunn traded soon after the draft for Carl Crawford. All told, Crosby is probably the only one Scotty would like to have back – though he did protect Lidge over Joe Nathan, he was able to keep Nathan as well.

Elephant Balls

No-Brainers: C Posada, 2B (SS) Reyes, 3B Wright, OF Sheffield, OF V Wells, SP Myers, SP Pettitte, SP Bedard, RP Rivera, RP T Jones
Whoops: SP Duke

Really only one bad mistake on George’s list, and Zach Duke had finished 2005 so strong that it would’ve been hard to leave him unprotected. All of the rest have been better than average over the past two years. George still has 8 of these players (including Duke – hey, here’s to hoping!) having traded Myers, Jones and Wells in separate deals.

Hells Kitchen Herzogs

No-Brainers: C V Martinez, 3B A Ramirez, OF Beltran, OF M Ramirez, SP Blanton, SP Kazmir, RP C Cordero
Injury Problem: SP J Schmidt
Jury’s Still Out: SP Lowry, 1B Delgado
Throw Him Back!: SP Lee

Cooper’s protected list has been a mixed bag of fantasy success over the past two years. A few absolute studs but a lot of problems with injury and ineffectiveness, especially with Schmidt, Lowry and Lee. All three of those pitchers start out the 2008 season off of the active roster. Blanton is the only one of the original 11 no longer on the Herzogs – he was traded to the Lynchmob for Lastings Milledge.

Isotopes

No-Brainers: 1B Pujols, 2B Cano, OF C Lee, RP F Rodriguez, RP Wagner
One Good Year: SS Tejada, 3B Rolen, SP R Johnson, SP Garland, RP M Gonzalez
Oof!: SP Colon

The ‘topes got solid years out of most of their protected list in 2006 and rode those players all the way to the title. A number of them fell off the map in 2007, and they have all been moved or dropped since the expansion draft. Tejada and The Unit to Mattro, Garland to the E-Balls, Mike Gonzalez to AC’s DL, and the infamous Colon for Abreu trade early in 2006 with the Stophers. Only three (!) of Rocky’s 11 protected players remain with the ‘topes – Pujols, Cano and K-Rod.

Jackrabbits

No-Brainers: 1B Howard, 2B B Roberts, OF Bonds, DH Hafner, SP Webb, SP Bonderman, SP Haren, SP Cain, RP Isringhausen
Still Waiting for Breakout: OF Hermida
Not so good: OF Gomes

Brandon Brown had spent 2005 stockpiling youth – in that respect, he had a fabulous hit rate on the 11 players he chose to protect. Jeremy Hermida goes into 2008 as a breakout candidate for the 3rd year in a row, and Jonny Gomes…well, he’s been exposed as a mediocre MLBer. Despite so-so 2007 campaigns for Bonds, Hafner and Bonderman, they still have to be considered good choices for protection. Only Bonds and Gomes are no longer with the Rabbits.

Limerick Lynchmob

No-Brainers: 3B Glaus, OF Bay, SP Peavy
Occasional Studs: 1B D Lee, 2B Weeks, SP Carpenter, SP Willis, RP Gagne
Mostly Injured: SP P Martinez, RP BJ Ryan
My Bad!: 2B Cantu

Jeff’s 11 man protected list has been through hell and back. Hardest ones to categorize so far. Really, the only true stud on this list over the past two years is Peavy – Glaus and Bay suffered through average 2007 campaigns. Carpenter was very good in 2006 before TJ surgery took him out for 2007, Pedro is just getting back after a lost year and then some, BJ Ryan also went under the knife. That the Mob continues to be a top team in the league despite the setbacks is a testament to their depth and Jeff’s ability to get value in trades, including the blockbuster that landed him Grady Sizemore in the Dontrelle Willis deal. 7 of the 11 remain with the Lynchmob 2 years later, including all of his injured pitchers.

MattroStars

No-Brainers: C Mauer, 2B Utley, OF V Guerrero, OF Berkman, SP Halladay, SP Oswalt, SP F Hernandez, SP Beckett
Injury Issues: SP Harden, RP Street
Can I protect Rollins instead?: 3B Chavez

With a roster as stacked as Mattro’s was at the time of the draft, the protection decisions are difficult. Because of his perceived depth at SS (Rollins and Peralta coming off a big year) Mattro decided to protect Eric Chavez, who is now available in free agency. Rich Harden has been awesome all 6 times he’s taken the mound in the past 2 years, and Huston Street has been on and off the DL. Otherwise, hard to quibble with the rest. 8 of the 11 protected remain Mattrostars, after the blockbuster Utley trade with AC’s Gun Show.

Norris Slum Lords

No-Brainers: 2B Soriano, SS M Young, OF Crawford, OF Francoeur, RP F Cordero
The Price of Mediocrity: 3B Blalock, SP Buehrle, SP L Hernandez, SP O Perez
Someday…: SP Prior
I protected this guy?: OF Wilkerson

On the other hand, the Slum Lords appeared to be reaching just to make it to 11 protected players. Brad Wilkerson didn’t make it through July of 2006 with the Lords before getting dropped, and there’s a fair amount of mediocrity in the remaining players. Crawford was dealt for Adam Dunn immediately after the draft. The Lords did turn Mark Prior and JD Drew into Prince Fielder, so they have that going for them…which is nice. Only 5 of the original 11 remain with the Lords.

Blunted Stophers

No-Brainers: 3B A Rodriguez, OF B Abreu, OF Burrell, SP C Zambrano
Big Contract, Small Results: SP Zito
Underachieving: 1B Sexson
Blame Injuries: SP F Garcia
Blunted, What?: C J Lopez, 2B F Lopez, RP Guardado, RP J Sosa

I guess we can start by saying, anytime you protect your best 11 guys for an expansion draft and 4 of them are on the waiver wire 2 years later, that’s not a good sign. And sadly, one of the 4 “No-Brainers” (and even that might be a stretch) was quickly traded for an overweight starting pitcher who was about to break down. All told, the expansion draft process was not a memorable one for Sal. Perhaps it was because Randy Stopher hadn’t joined the management team yet? 5 of the protected remain Stophers to this day.

T-Baggers

No-Brainers: 1B Helton, SS Furcal, OF Sizemore, OF Andruw Jones, OF Matsui, SP Lackey, SP Wang
Up-and-Down: SP E Santana, SP D Davis
Take it back: 2B M Giles, RP Turnbow

The bad news is, of those no-brainers, 2 were shipped to the Lynchmob (Sizemore and Wang), and 2 have had problems over the past two years: Andruw Jones decided that playing for a contract was too much hassle, and H Matsui broke his wrist in ’06. Once Marcus Giles gave up the juice, the Baggers gave up on him, and Derrick Turnbow didn’t last very long as a closer. The Baggers wheeled and dealed their way to the top 3 picks in the 2008 draft, and see a bright future ahead. Only 4 of the Baggers 11 protected players remain with the team.

Next week we’ll look at the strategies of the Satanists and Gun Show going into the draft, and analyze the performance of the first 10 picks.

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